The revelation a decade ago of Iran’s extensive
nuclear program (uranium enrichment) led not only to the contretemps with
Europe and the United States about whether the Iranian nuclear program was
purely for peaceful purposes, but also triggered strategic anxiety among its
Arab neighbors. This strategic
unease among Arab nations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in turn
led to several of Iran’s neighbors moving toward their own nuclear programs and
also has created an opening for Russia to expand its influence in the region
through assisting countries develop nuclear power, as it did with Iran.
At present, Iran is the only MENA country with an
operating nuclear power plant: The
Bushehr 1, 1000-MWe VVER reactor built by Russia’s Atomstroyexport, after
several delays, finally started full commercial operation last September. In February 2014 the Atomic Energy
Organization of Iran (AEOI) announced that construction by Atomstroyexport of a
similar unit—Bushehr 2—would begin this spring. In addition, Iran operates uranium mining, milling,
conversion and enrichment facilities and a heavy water production plant. A heavy
water research reactor is under construction at Arak.
Research Reactors
A number of other MENA countries have had
long-standing nuclear programs, generally operating one or more very small
research reactors to provide nuclear training and medical radioactive
isotopes. Algeria commissioned a
1-MW Argentine unit in 1989 and a Chinese 15MW research reactor in 1992. Egypt started up a USSR-supplied Egypt
with a 2-MW in 1961. A number of
scholar’s believe that Egypt’s Atomic Energy Establishment (AEE), during the
regime of President Gen. Gamal Nasser, developed technology and training in nuclear
weapons. Egypt did not bring its
USSR reactor under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards until
the 1980s.
History has shown such research reactors can be less
benign. Israel bombed Iraq’s
French-built Osirak 40-MW research reactor in 1981, just prior to first fuel
loading, out of concern that Iraq planned to use the reactor for nuclear
weapons’ fuel. In 1991, the U.S.
bombed a Russian reactor at the same site in the opening of the Desert Storm
operation. This despite Iraq’s
having been a non-nuclear weapon state (NNWS) party to the Treaty on the
Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) since 1969.
Also, in September 2007, Israel bombed and destroyed
what Israeli and U.S. officials claimed was a Syrian plutonium production
reactor. Syria denied the claim,
but failed to provide full IAEA access to the bombing site. In May 2011, the IAEA said “It is very
likely that the building…was a nuclear reactor which should have been declared
to the Agency.” Syria had signed
the NPT in 1968 and ratified it a year later. Syria also operates a 30KW Chinese-built miniature neutron
source reactor, which went critical in 1996.
Israel itself maintains a policy of opacity regarding
its nuclear program. It is a party
to neither the NPT nor the Missile Technology Control Regime. It has signed, but not ratified, the
CTBT. Its nuclear program is
centered at the Negev Nuclear Research Center, where a French plutonium
production reactor reached criticality some 50 years ago. While Israel does not acknowledge its
nuclear weapons program, the Nuclear Threat Initiative notes that Israel is
“believed to have produced enough weapons-grade plutonium for 100 to 200
nuclear warheads.” (http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/israel/) Israel
has no nuclear electric power generation reactors.
New Nuclear Power Programs
As mentioned above, the realization that Iran was
covertly pursuing a nuclear program potentially capable of giving it a nuclear
weapons capability, sharply aggravated existing geopolitical, religious and
other tensions with Iran’s Arab neighbors. The response, in part, focused on other countries pursuing
nuclear power programs.
Algeria. Between 2007 and 2010, Algeria signed nuclear cooperation agreements
with Russia, the U.S., France, Argentina and South Africa. Algeria told the IAEA in 2012 that it
planned to have a nuclear power plant in operation by 2022, with a second by
2027. In May 2013, Algerian Energy
and Mines Minister Youcef Yousfi moved the target to 2025, while also
establishing a Nuclear Engineering Institute to train Algerian personnel. The country also is considering nuclear
desalination. Algeria has ratified
the NPT and has had a full-scope safeguards agreement with the IAEA in place
since 1995. Algeria also is a
party to the Treaty of Pelindaba (African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone).
Egypt. Egyptian President Gamel Adbel Nasser created the Atomic Energy
Commission in 1955. Although
Nassar was thought to have considered a nuclear weapons program, Egypt signed
the NPT in 1968 and ratified it in 1981, followed in 1982 by a comprehensive safeguards
agreement with the IAEA. Egypt’s
Inshas Nuclear Research Center outside Cairo has a USSR 2-MW research reactor,
22-MW Argentine light water research reactor, and fuel and waste facilities. In 2006, the Mubarak government planned
a program of 10 nuclear power reactors, which was supported by Mubarak’s
successor Mohammed Morsi. Any such
program will have to await the view of the newly elected Egyptian president and
an evaluation of whether the country, with its myriad economic challenges, can
support an expensive nuclear power construction effort.
Iraq. The United Nations Security Council in 2010, recognizing Iraq’s
post-Saddam Hussein adherence to its nuclear nonproliferation commitments,
lifted sanctions against a peaceful nuclear program. Iraqi government officials reportedly contacted French
nuclear industry officials about rebuilding one of the reactors bombed in
1991. Iraq ratified the CTBT in
Sept. 2013. While some Iraqi
government officials have stated support for a nuclear power program, no specific
plans have been advanced as the country focuses on rehabilitating and expanding
its oil and gas production and export capability.
Jordan. A country that imports more than 95 percent of its energy, but has
significant uranium resources, Jordan’s Committee for Nuclear Strategy has set
out a program for nuclear to provide 30 percent of Jordan’s energy needs by
2030, plus potential power exports.
After a design and siting process involving seven offers from four reactor
vendors, the Jordan Atomic Energy Commission (JAEC) in 2010 short-listed
reactors from France’s Areva, Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., and Russia’s
Atomstroyexport. In October 2013,
JAEC selected Atomstroyexport to supply two 1000-MW AES-92 reactors, while
Rusatom Overseas will operate the plant.
Russia will contribute at least 49 percent of the $10 billion project
tab. The first plant is targeted
for operation in 2021, with the second in 2025. Siting still is unresolved. A 5-MW research reactor is being built by a South Korean
consortium at the Jordan University for Science and Technology north of Amman,
with low-enriched uranium to be supplied by Areva.
Kuwait. Kuwait’s National Nuclear Energy Committee and Rosatom signed nuclear
energy for peaceful uses memorandum of understanding and cooperation in
2010. On March 27, 2014, Rosatom
Deputy Director for International Activities Nikolai Spassky met in Moscow with
Kuwait’s Ambassador Abdulaziz al-Adwani to offer assistance in the areas of
national nuclear legislation, creation of supervisory and regulatory bodies, as
well as construction of a nuclear research center and a nuclear power plant,
when Kuwait reaches that point. [Itar-TASS] Kuwait has signed (1968) and ratified (1989) the NPT and
supports a Middle East Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (NWFZ).
Libya. The USSR supplied Libya with a 10-MW IRT-1 research reactor in the
1980s. Libya ratified the NPT in
1975, but pursued a clandestine nuclear weapons program with technology from
the Pakistani AQ Khan network. The
renunciation of all Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) programs by Col. Muammar
Qadhafi in 2003 ended Libya’s nuclear weapons program. The following year Libya signed the
Additional Protocol, to provide IAEA oversight of the dismantling of the
program. Prior to the overthrow of
Qadhafi, the regime actively sought outside help for nuclear technology related
to seawater desalination.
Saudi
Arabia. Following a 2006 decision by the Gulf Cooperation
Council to study peaceful uses of nuclear energy, in 2010 a royal Saudi degree
stated that “…atomic energy is essential to meet the Kingdom’s growing
requirements for energy…“ and the King Abdullah City for Nuclear and Renewable
Energy (KA-CARE) commissioned a series of studies that, inter alia, short listed three potential sites for nuclear power
plants: Jubail on the Gulf, and
Tabuk and Jizan on the Red Sea.
The Kingdom plans construction of 16 nuclear power plants over the next
20 years, costing more than $80 billion.
It expects the first reactor to commence operations in 2022. GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, Toshiba/Westinghouse,
and Areva all have expressed interest in supplying nuclear technology. Saudi Arabia has signed nuclear
cooperation agreements with France, Argentina, South Korea and China, and is
negotiating with Russia, the Czech Republic, the U.K. and the U.S. Saudi Arabia is a NNWS party to the NPT
and has a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement with the IAEA. Riyadh supports a Middle East
Nuclear-Weapon-Free-Zone.
Turkey. Turkey is not an Arab country, but shares a 499-kilometer (310 mile)
border with Iran. Turkey has explored
nuclear power since the 1950s, but only in 1996 tendered for a 2000 MW plant at
Akkuyu on the Mediterranean coast near Mersin. Westinghouse with Mitsubishi, Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd.,
and France’s Framatome with Germany’s Siemens all submitted bids, but after
years of delay in April 2000 Turkey abandoned the effort due to economics. Turkey re-tendered in March 2008 and
accepted the only bid, which came from Atomstroyexport, for four 1200 MW VVER
reactors. The Russians will finance
the build, own and operate facility, and Rosatom expects to retain at least 51
percent, while Turkish entities can purchase part of the $20 billion
project. Construction permits are
expected this year, with the plants coming online annually starting around 2020
Last year, Turkey accepted a proposal from a
consortium led by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Areva, with Itochu, for four
1200 MW Atmea1 nuclear reactors to be built at Sinop on the Black Sea. France’s GdF Suez will be the operator. The Turkish Atomic Energy Authority
anticipates construction to start on the first Atmea1 reactor in 2017, with
operation beginning 2023. ENEC
contracted with Uranium One (Canada), Rio Tinto (UK), Areva and Techsnabexport
(Tenex—Russia) for uranium concentrates supply; with Areva, Tenex and Converdyn
(U.S) for conversion services; and with Areva, Tenex and the European Urenco
for enrichment.
United Arab
Emirates (UAE). Another member of the 2006 Gulf Cooperation Council
nuclear energy studies decision, the U.A.E. has moved most quickly. After the publication in 2008 of a
comprehensive nuclear policy document, The Emirates Nuclear Energy Corp. (ENEC)
was established to evaluate and implement U.A.E. nuclear power plans. In 2009, it short-listed consortia from
France and Korea, as well as GE-Hitachi, finally selecting Korea for four
reactors. Korea Electric Power Co.
(KEPCO), with Samsung, Hydundai and Doosan will construct four Westinghouse
APR-1400 reactors, for some $20 billion, at Barakah on the Gulf coast. Construction commenced on unit 1 in
July 2012 and unit 2 in May 2013; unit 3 is expected to start build this
year. Operation of the four units is
projected for 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020.
The U.A.E. is a NPT signatory and ratified a
safeguards agreement with the IAEA in 2003, and signed the Additional Protocol
in 2009. In 2009 the U.A.E. also
concluded a “Section 123” nuclear cooperation agreement with the U.S. foregoing
nuclear fuel enrichment and reprocessing.
Conclusion.
Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa
can justify nuclear programs for desalination and electric power by either
their lack of energy resources or by their need to maintain hydrocarbon
production for export and to minimize global climate impacts of rapidly growing
hydrocarbon combustion.
Nonetheless, concern about Iran’s ambitious atomic energy program
clearly motivated many to move beyond mere consideration of nuclear power to
actively pursuing it.
Jordan, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates all have
awarded contracts for construction of nuclear electric power plants. Algeria and Saudi Arabia have
announced plans for significant nuclear power sector development, but have not
moved to specific plans for plants.
Egypt, Iraq and Libya all have broached nuclear power development, but
have much more pressing economic, social and political problems to
resolve. Kuwait has begun
preparing for a possible nuclear energy sector.
The expanding interest by MENA countries in nuclear
power has provided a double benefit for Russia. First, it has moved quickly to expand its influence and intelligence
gathering in the region by signing nuclear cooperation agreements with any and
all comers. Second, it sees the
Middle East as critical to maintaining viability of the Russian nuclear
technology, engineering and construction industry as domestic energy growth
plateaus. It already has contracts
worth tens of billions of dollars to supply nuclear reactors to Jordan and
Turkey. It no doubt will try to
use the nuclear research reactors the USSR built in Egypt, Iraq, Libya and
Syria as further leverage.
So far, no other countries in the region appear
interested in developing nuclear weapons programs. Many have emphatically rejected their own nuclear weapons programs,
as well as calling for Nuclear-Weapons-Free Zones in Africa and in the Middle
East. But the seeds are sown and
will require increased U.S. vigilance.
