India Backtracks on Gas Price Rises

After India’s previous Congress Party-led government broke the decades-long tradition of holding natural gas prices way below market levels, the newly elected Modi government now is reviewing that courageous, if partial, step toward market pricing.  (For details on prior deal, see below "China, India Raise Gas Prices, Part 2--India," July 29, 2013.)

India has long set energy prices below market levels. This policy resulted in two predictable effects:  significant energy shortages and huge government deficits. Gas demand in India is expected to hit 450 million cubic metres per day by fiscal 2015-16 (starting next April 1), with domestic production of less than 120 mmcm/d and projected imports of 170 mmcm/d, leaving a gap of more than 160 mmcm/d (5.7 bcfd).   The International Energy Agency estimates that India’s subsidies just for oil products jumped from $11.5 billion in 2009 to $30.9 billion in 2011.  In the same period, subsidies for natural gas--a much smaller market--varied from $2 to $3 billion annually.

Despite the environmental and energy security advantages of natural gas in India, gas represents less than six percent of total primary energy requirements.  (Coal, mostly produced domestically, accounts for 45 percent.)  The Government of India provides its fertilizer and petrochemical industries not only subsidized prices for gas, but also priority allocations.  In 2007, these two industries consumed more than two-thirds of all gas used, but the growth of gas-fired power plants dropped that share to about half by 2012.

The rise of gas-fired power rested on hopes for Reliance Industries Ltd.’s (RIL) production from its giant offshore Krishna-Godavari D6 block.  RIL had projected output of 27 million cubic metres per day by 2010, but it has repeatedly failed to reach targets. (In 2011, BP bought a 30 percent stake in the field for $7.2 billion.)  Last year, with KG-D6 producing only 14 mmcm/d, the government’s allocation priority to the fertilizer industry meant that the allocation for power plants, which was cut from November 2011, was completely eliminated. At the time, curtailments to the 18.7 gigawatts of gas-fired power units were estimated at two-thirds of their needs, with an additional 8 GW of capacity nearing commissioning.  Refineries, steel plants, liquid petroleum gas plants and even city gas supplies also faced allocated natural gas cuts. Not all gas supplies are subject to government allocation, exceptions being mainly for imported gas.

In June 2013 the Union (central) Government announced a decision by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) to approve pricing of domestic natural gas at an overage cost of imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) into India and international gas hub rates.  The new formula was to have come into effect on April 1, 2014, with an expected price about US$8.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) or double the current price in India. 

With national elections called this past spring, India’s election authority in March ordered the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas to hold off on the scheduled April 1 gas price increase until after the new government took power.  The Bharativa Janata Party won a decisive victory over the Congress Party and Narendra Modi became Indian Prime Minister.

In late June, the new Government’s CCEA announced a three-month deferral of the scheduled gas price increases.  Share prices of Indian producers immediately dropped:  RIL by 3.7 percent, Oil and Natural Gas Corp. by 5.8 percent and Oil India Ltd. by 2.8 percent.  Late last month, the government established a panel of secretaries (senior civil servants) from four ministries:  Expenditure, Power, Fertilizer, and Petroleum & Natural Gas.  The panel will examine gaps in the “Rangarajan Formula,” the basis for the delayed increase, including use of heat value vs. volume, weighting of prices in the formula, assigning different prices based on exploration risk and difficulty, etc.  Once the panel consults with affected parties, it will offer its recommendations to the central government.   MPNG Minister Rajya Pradhan promised Parliament the government would present a new gas pricing formula by Sept. 30.

During more than a decade as Chief Minister (governor) of India’s western state of Gujarat, Modi and the BJP gained a reputation for favoring “development over the dole” and being more business-friendly than the Congress Party. Modi’s focus on industrialization and export-promotion in Gujarat may have led to unreasonable expectations when he moved from Gandhinagar to Delhi and from leading 62.7 million (a bit less than the combined populations of California and Texas) to 1.27 billion (nearly four times the U.S. population. 

Modi’s first Union (national) budget, presented in July, was panned by many as disappointing and lacking the vision of Modi’s campaign.  It did propose building 15,000 kilometres (9,375 miles) of pipelines to complete the national gas grid.  It also emphasized the reduction of fuel subsidies, but provided no details.  Thus, the recommendations of the intra-ministerial committee on natural gas pricing—and the Government’s response--may reveal how far Modi and the BJP are willing to move toward market pricing and away from continuing energy subsidies.